3d组六包号价目表

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                      • 售电观察之---安徽竞价交易结果原因分析

                        2018-04-17 17:39:14 深度能源观察  点击量: 评论 (0)
                        自2015年中共中央、国务院发布《关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见(中发〔2015〕9号)文》(以下简称”电改9号文”)以及配套文件以来,各省开展售电以来,交易规则原来越完善,交易规模逐渐扩大,交易规则的执行越来越规范化流程化。

                        2019年竞价价格跳水原因初探及趋势分析

                        ZUOZHE:WANGLINSHEN LIANXIFANGSHI:

                        3d组六包号价目表ZI2015NIANZHONGGONGZHONGYANG、GUOWUYUANFABU《GUANYUJINYIBUSHENHUADIANLITIZHIGAIGEDERUOGANYIJIAN(ZHONGFA〔2015〕9HAO)WEN》(YIXIAJIANCHENG”DIANGAI9HAOWEN”)YIJIPEITAOWENJIANYILAI,GESHENGKAIZHANSHOUDIANYILAI,JIAOYIGUIZEYUANLAIYUEWANSHAN,JIAOYIGUIMOZHUJIANKUODA,JIAOYIGUIZEDEZHIXINGYUELAIYUEGUIFANHUALIUCHENGHUA。

                        安徽电力交易3d组六包号价目表市场的规模也在一年比一年的扩大,2018年三种交易模式,其中双边协商交易电量450亿千瓦时、年度集中70亿千瓦时、月度集中60亿千瓦时,共计580亿千瓦时市场电量[1]。2019年双边交易760亿千瓦时[2]。

                        BIAO1:2018NIAN5YUEZHIJINDEJINGJIAQINGKUANG

                        WEILETANXUNANHUIYUEJINGJIAGEBIANHUABEIHOUDEYUANYIN,WOMENSHOUXIANXUYAOLEJIEANHUIDIANLISHICHANGJIAOYIDEBEIJINGQINGKUANG,YESHIMAIMAISHUANGFANGSUOMIANLINDEJUXIANTIAOJIAN。2018NIANANHUIDIANLIJINGJIAJIAOYIBEIJINGQINGKUANGHEMAIMAISHUANGFANGZUIYOUJIEGUOHEBAOJIACELVEFENXI。

                        背景情况:

                        YI、GUIZEBIJIAOWANBEI,YOUQINGXIDEJIAOYIMOSHI,JIAOYIJIESUANZHIDU。JIAOYIMOSHIWEISIZHONG:DUONIANSHUANGBIANXIESHANG、NIANDUSHUANGBIANXIESHANG,NIANDUJINGJIA、YUEDUJINGJIA,JINGJIASHITONGYICHUQINGMOSHI。

                        ER、JIAOYIDIANLIANGANPAIWEIGUDINGGONGJIGUIMO,JIAOYIGUIMOSHI:DUONIANSHUANGBIANHENIANDUSHUANGBIAN450YIQIANWASHI、NIANDUJINGJIA70YIQIANWASHI、YUEDUJINGJIAWEI60YIQIANWASHI,QIEYUEDUJINGJIAJIAOYI6GEYUE,MEIGEYUE10YIQIANWASHI。XUQIUFANGZHUNRU5131JIAYONGHU,DIANLIANGXUQIUYUE770YIQIANWASHI,DAGAILVSHIJIANSHIXUQIUDAYU770YIQIANWASHI,YINWEIYUEDUZHIJIAOYILE6GEYUE。

                        SAN、GONGXUBIWEI0.5,MAIFANGMEIYUEDIANLIANGXUQIUWEI20YIQIANWASHIZUOYOU,MAIFANGKEGONGJI40YIQIANWASHIZUOYOU,MAIMAISHUANGFANGBAOJIASHANGXIANWEI384.4YUAN/ZHAOWASHI(ANHUIRANMEIBIAOGANSHANGWANGDIANJIA)。ERCHENGJIAODIANLIANGXIANZHIWEI10YIQIANWASHI[JIANJIAOYIGONGGAO]。

                        买卖双方最优结果和报价策略分别分析如下:

                        3d组六包号价目表MAIFANGDEZUIYOUJIEGUOSHICHENGJIAO(BUCHENGJIAOMIANLINKAOHEFEIYONGHUOZHEWEIYUEDIANLIANGKAOHE),YINWEIZHIYAOCHENGJIAOJIAGEJIUBUHUIGAOYUBIAOGANDIANJIA。YOUJIHUICHENGBENHEJINGZHENG(XUQIULIANGGAOYUCHENGJIAOLIANG)DEJIAODUFENXI,MAIFANGBAOJIACELVESHIZUIGAOSHANGXIANBAOJIAQIEXUYAOKUAI(KUAICAINENGPAIWEIKAOQIAN)。MAIFANGDEJINGZHENGDUISHOUSHIMAIFANG。

                        MAIFANGKEMAIDIANLIANGGAOYUCHENGJIAODIANLIANG,MAIFANGDEZUIYOUJIEGUOSHIZAICHENGJIAOJIAGEJINKENENGKAOJIN384.4YUAN/ZHAOWASHISHICHENGJIAO。DANSHIYOUYUMAIFANGDIANLIANGDAYUCHENGJIAODIANLIANG,QIESHITONGYICHUQINGMOSHI,RUGUOBAODIJIA(YUANYUANXIAOYU384.4YUAN/ZHAOWASHI)DEMAIFANGDIANLIANGGUODUO(DAYU10YIQIANWASHI),SUCHENGDABIANCHEBAOJIACELVE,NEIMECHENGJIAOJIAGEHUIYUANYUANDIYU384.4YUAN/ZHAOWASHI,ERWOMENKANJIANDEJIEGUOSHICHENGJIAOJIAGEJIQIJIEJIN384.4YUAN/ZHAOWASHI[JIANBIAO1]。SHENMEYUANYINDAOZHIZHEIGEJIEGUONI?WOMENDEFENXISHI,YAODABIANCHEDEFADIANCHANGKEBAODIANLIANGYUANBUZU10YIQIANWASHI(YOU2019NIANJIEZHI4YUEDEJINGJIACHENGJIAOJIAGEWOMENKEZHIDEQUECUNZAIDABIANCHEDEQIYE,QIEDABIANCHEDEQIYEDEZUIYOUJIEGUOSHICHENGJIAODIANLIANG,CHENGJIAOJIAGESHIDIERWEIXUANZE),BINGQIEZHEIYIXINXIZAIGONGJIFANGSHI“RENJINJIEZHI”DE(XINXIFEIYONGHENDI),BINGQIECHULEDABIANCHEDEGONGJIFANG,QITAGONGJIFANGJINGZHENGYIYUANBUZU(DIANLIANGCHENGBUCHENGJIAOWUSUOWEI)HUOZHE(HE)QITAGONGJIFANGBIJIAODANYI。RUCI,GONGJIFANGDESHOUMAICELVESHIMIJIAFANGSHI,QIEJINKENENGZHAQUXIAOFEIZHEYINGYU[JIANSHANGPIANWENZHANG]。SUOYIYUEJINGJIAGESHIJIQIJIEJIN384.4YUAN/QIANWASHI。

                        3d组六包号价目表DUIYUANHUISHENGZAI2018NIANJINGJIAZHONG“DABIANCHE”DEFADIANCHANGLAISHUO,YOUYUSHANGTOUCHENGBEN[JIANZHANGWUCHANGJINGJIJIESHI]DEYUANYIN,DIANLIANGBUCHENGJIAODEJIHUICHENGBENSHIJUDADE,YEJIUSHISHUO“DABIANCHE”DEFADIANCHANGZUIYOUJIEGUOSHICHENGJIAO,QICIZAIKANJIAGE。

                        2019年安徽电力竞价交易背景:

                        GUIZEJINYIBUWANSHAN,ZAIGEFANGZHUTIQUANLIYIWUHEJIAOYIANPAISHANGYUELAIYUEQINGXIYOUXU(NENGJIANSHAOSHICHANGDEXINXIFEIYONG)。

                        GONGJIFANG:30WANCHANGGUI:BUDIYU1400XIAOSHI,BUGAOYU2200XIAOSHI;60WANCHANGGUIHECHAOLINJIE:BUGAOYU2600XIAOSHI;60WANCHAOCHAOLINJIE:BUGAOYU2900XIAOSHI;100WANCHAOCHAOLINJIE:BUGAOYU3400XIAOSHI。

                        2019NIANSHUANGBIANXIESHANGCHENGJIAODIANLIANG770YIQIANWASHI,NIANDUJINGJIACHENGJIAODIANLIANG5.4408YIQIANWASHI,SHIQISHUANGBIANDE0.7%。YUEDUJINGJIADIANLIANGZHANYUEDUSHUANGBIANDIANLIANGGUJIZAI0.6%ZUOYOU。ZHEIJIEGUOSHIYOUYU2018NIANJINGJIAJIAOYIJIAGEDUIYUGOUMAIFANGDESHUANGBIANXIESHANGJIAGECHAHAODUO,SUOYI2019NIANGOUMAIFANGJIHUSUOYOUDIANLIANGDOUANPAISHUANGBIANXIESHANGJIAOYI。

                        买卖双方最优结果和报价策略分别分析如下:

                        3d组六包号价目表GOUMAIFANGSHENGYUDIANLIANGBUDAOZONGDIANLIANG1%,ERKAOHEBIAOZHUNWEI+5%,-3%,SUOYIZAIYUEDUJINGJIAJIAOYIZHONG,GOUDIANFANGDEJIHUICHENGBENJIQIDI(DIANLIANGCHENGBUCHENGJIAOSUNSHIBUDA),RUCIGOUDIANFANGDEZUIYOUJIEGUOSHICHENGJIAOJIAGEJINKENENGDIDEQINGKUANGXIACHENGJIAO。ZHISUOYISHUOCHENGJIAOJIAOGEJINKENENGDI,SHIYINWEIZAIDIANLIJINGJIADESHICHANGJIEGOUSHIMAIFANG“MIJIAMOSHI”[JIANSHANGPIANWENZHANG,QINGLIANXIZUOZHE]。

                        3d组六包号价目表DIANCHANGZAI2019NIANDEBEIJINGTIAOJIANXIA,ZUIYOUJIEGUOSHICHENGJIAOJIAGEJINKENENGGAODEQINGKUANGXIACHENGJIAO,ERYOUYOUYU2018NIAN“DABIANCHE”DEFADIANCHANGYANXUDAO2019NIAN(YANXUDEYUANYINSHIYINWEIANHUIYOUDUONIANSHUANGBIAN),QIEQIDUIYUGOUDIANFANGDEQINGKUANGBULEJIE(XINXIFEIYONGGAO),SUOYIQIDAOZHI2019NIANNIANCHUDENIANDUJIZHONGJINGJIAHE2/3YUEFENDEJIAGEDATIAOSHUI。

                        SHANGMIANDEFENXIYOUSANGEWENTIXUYAOSHUOMING,DIYIGEWENTI,ZAI2019NIANNIANDUJINGJIAJIAOYIZHONG,GOUMAICEBAOJIAYIJUSHISHENME?DA:GOUMAICEDEBAOJIAYIJULAIYUANYU2018NIANJINGJIADEXINXI,2018NIAN“DABIANCHE”FADIANCHANGDEBAOJIAXINXIDUIYUSHICHANGSHI“RENJINJIEZHI”,ZHEIYIDIANSHIWUYONGZHIYIDE,YAOBUKAISHIDEJINGJIAJIAOYIBUHUIZHEIME“CHENGGONG”。DIERGEWENTI,WEISHENMEMAIFANG“MIJIA”DAO4YUEYUEJINGCAIDAO“HELIJIAGE”(DUIMIJIAFANG),XUYAONEIMEZHANGSHIJIAN?DA:YOUYUNIANDUJINGJIASHI2019NIAN1YUE28-30RI,QIE2YUEJINGJIASHI2YUE18-19RI,3YUEJINGJIASHI2YUE21-22RI,QIJIANGANSHANGCHUNJIEHEYUANXIAOJIE。SHIJIANJINPOXIA,MAIFANGQIYEZAIFENXIXINXI,QUEDINGXINXIHEDIAOZHENGBAOJIAXUYAOYIDINGSHIJIAN(QIYEDEZHIDUCHENGBEN)。DISANGEWENTIYESHISHISHI,2019NIAN3YUE、4YUEGOUMAIFANGDIANLIANGMEIYOUWANQUANCHENGJIAO,JUTIZENMEFENXICHULAIDEKEYILIANXIZUOZHEDEDAODAAN。

                        RUCI,WOMENFENXILEANHUISHENG2018NIANDAO2019NIAN4YUEFENJINGJIAJIAOYIYILAIDEQINGKUANG。CHULEYISHANGMINGQUEDEJIELUN,WOMENHAIYOURUXIALIANGGEJIELUNDECHU:

                        第一,安徽省电力交易供给侧“贫富不均”,且“富”的发电厂几乎没有相互竞争的意愿。

                        3d组六包号价目表DIER,DUIYU“DABIANCHE”DEFADIANCHANG,ZUIYOUCELVESHIZAIFADIANQUANZHUANRANGJIAOYIZHONGNAYIBUFENDIANLIANG,SHIZIJIBAITUOBULIDIWEI。

                        3d组六包号价目表WOMENYOUYIGEYUCE,RUGUO“PIN”DEFADIANCHANGYIZHIBUNENGZAIFADIANQUANJIAOYIZHONGHUOZHEQITAJIAOYI(HELIJIAGEXIA)NADAOZUGOUDIANLIANG,NEIMEDENGDAOANHUIDABUFENDEDUONIANQISHUANGBIANXIEYITONGSHIDAOQISHI,NEIMEANHUISHENGDEXIESHANGJIAOYIDEJIAGEDUIYUFADIANCELAISHUOYOUSHIYICHANGXUEYUXINGFENG,SIGEYUEGUOQULE,FADIANQUANJIAOYIMEIYOUFADIANCEDECHENGJIAOJILU,WOHENTITAMENZHEJIYA!!!

                        HEWEISHICHANG?SHANGDIDEGUISHANGDI,KAISADEGUIKAISA。

                        CANKAOZILIAO:

                        [1] 安徽电力交易中心3d组六包号价目表的2018年电力市场交易报告。

                        [2] 安徽电力交易中心3d组六包号价目表发布的《关于发布安徽省2019年度电力双边直接交易成交结果的公告》。

                        大云网官方微信售电那点事儿

                        ZERENBIANJI:RENDECAI

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